Harry Targ
Secretary
of State Anthony Blinken endorses negotiations between contending nations in
Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda August 9, 2022
And the Ukraine?
“The United States is doing everything it can to support the very important African-led mediation efforts, in particular the processes that are being led by Kenya and Angola, to bring peace, security and stability to the eastern Congo. We are not only following this very closely and carefully, we’re engaged in it,” he said. (Jean-Yves Kamale “Blinken calls for end to Congo violence, backs negotiations” Associated Press, August 9, 2022.)
"Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Russian defense minister Sergey Shoygu on Friday, marking the first time the two have spoken since before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine began." (The Hill, May 13,2022).
As a Marxist teaching Peace Studies I always made light of sections of my course and text that dealt with bargaining and negotiation.
However, reflecting on the war in Ukraine and the seething tensions and competing arguments (even among us on the left) I was drawn to this bargaining and negotiation literature I long since forgot. Why? Because I do believe the first priority of the peace movement should be to organize around stopping the killing. We can put off for now debates over the role of NATO, great power chauvinism, self-determination of Ukrainians including those in the Donbas region, and the role or not of neo-Nazi's. In my opinion the first priority is how to get the killing to stop, hopefully coupled with a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
So I recalled the writings and research of a social psychologist, Charles Osgood, who developed his strategy of Graduated Reciprocation in Tension Reduction or GRIT. He claimed it worked during the Cuban Missile Crisis and others have claimed that it has worked in other conflict situations such as US/Iranian negotiations. https://savinghumans.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/building-a-spiral-of-trust-through-grit/
GRIT’s basic point is to get one side, in this case US/NATO/Ukraine, to make some serious but not risky unilateral moves inviting the other side to reciprocate. (And that is where peace movement activism and demands come in.) And such de-escalatory moves should be continued but not to endanger the security of the initiating party. (And the conversation between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Russian Defense Ministery Sergey Shoygu may be a start).
Hopefully, Osgood would have suggested, the Russians would eventually stop the killing, perhaps order troops in place, and/or pull back some troops. One critical goal would be to get a number of nations to send representatives to negotiate a ceasefire and further tension-reduction. In this case the Minsk Accords might be a starting place.
GRIT may not work, but in my opinion it is worth a try. And if one looks at the GRIT strategy for tension-reduction US policy is now doing just the opposite; that is the US is escalating by word and deed more threats, more demands, more arms, and more calls for expanding the scope of the conflict.
So, while social psychology is not political economy or realpolitik, it might help end the killing. And we all agree that is the first priority for the Ukrainians and is vital for reducing, rather than increasing, the threat of global nuclear war.
